In the January 2014 issue Pravin Sawhney wrote an essay chronicling the downfall of the Indian Army over the last 24 years since it got mired into counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir. Even though the retired military community has lapped up the essay, the current senior officer cadre is not happy. It is not difficult to understand why. Read on
The threats have changed and the Indian Army needs to
change too
By Pravin Sawhney
The 13-lakh strong Indian Army cleared by the
government to add another one lakh soldiers straddles two opposite worlds. One
is the No-War-No-Peace (NWNP) environment in Jammu and Kashmir, and the other
is a probability of ‘hot war’ with Pakistan and China; both requiring different
mind-sets, equipment and training. Unfortunately, the NWNP combat, which is
inward-looking, takes priority because it is both real and the army has honed its
skills in it over 24 years since 1990.
Today, 40 per
cent of the army is in the J&K theatre under the northern command
headquarters in Udhampur, while an equal number prepares itself to replace
those in the NWNP zone after four-week re-orientation training in defensive
counter-insurgency operations (CI ops) at three corps battle schools in the
troubled state. Considering that NWNP is the only familiar battle zone, it is
here that a generation of officers have grown and won awards, laurels,
promotions, prestige and status. This explains the long list of decorations
with most senior army officers’ names, something which their predecessors who
participated in ‘hot wars’ and ‘hot war’ exercises did not have. India’s Field
Marshal Sam Manekshaw, who won the 1971 war for India, was a mere Military
Cross.
On the other
hand, with all present generals having donned uniform after the last war in
1971, preparedness for ‘hot war’ is an elusive concept which is more notional
than real. Unless the army’s prioritisation gets reversed, India’s territorial
integrity would be severely affected. India after all has three military held
lines — the 746km Line of Control (LC) and 76km Actual Ground Position Line against
Pakistan and 3,488km Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China —, which require
boots on the ground to provide credible and offensive conventional deterrence. The
present army is over-worked and over-stretched and poses little threat to
either adversary. This is borne by Pakistan’s uninterrupted infiltration of
terrorists across the LC since 1990, and China’s successful military coercion
in April-May 2013. Nothing short of a strong political leadership is needed to
put the army back to its basics: training for its primary task of preparing for
‘hot war’.
The 24 years of
army’s involvement in CI ops in J&K has witnessed five distinct phases. The
first from 1990 to 1996 was the most difficult with numerous twists and turns.
During chief of army staff (COAS) General S.F. Rodrigues’ tenure from 1990 to
1993, large numbers of regular army for the first time were inducted in Kashmir
for internal security operations. General Rodrigues maintained that increased
deployment of the army was in ‘aid to civil authority’ and not in
counter-insurgency operations. The implication was that the army would leave
the Valley as soon as the situation was brought under control to allow the civil
administration to function.
Pakistan, meanwhile,
was in no mood to let the opportunity of the insurgency in the Valley (which had
surprised it as much as it had New Delhi), let go easily. So, Prime Minister
Benazir Bhutto declared from Muzaffarabad (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) in April
1990 that the accession to Pakistan was the only option open to Kashmiris. And,
Pakistan told the US that it feared that the massive induction of the Indian
Army in J&K would be used to spring a surprise attack on Pakistan across
the LC. This led to the 1990 Robert Gates’ US mission to the subcontinent when
numerous confidence building measures between India and Pakistan, including the
once-a-week telephonic conversation between the two director generals of
military operations, were agreed.
The Gates
mission put India on the back-foot with little hope of the Indian Army crossing
the LC. Moreover, the blooming insurgency energised the Kashmiri youth to cross
over into POK for training to liberate the Valley. From 1990 to 1993, the
militants had an upper hand, with the Indian media reporting of ‘liberated
zones’ in the Valley. Credit, however, must go to General Rodrigues that
despite odds, the army by beginning 1993 managed to have an upper hand over indigenous
insurgents in the Valley. The army came down with a heavy hand and Human Rights
were given a short shrift.
Indian Army’s tactical
successes forced Pakistan’s ISI to change its strategy of support to the
insurgency through five well-thought steps. One, by 1993, radical Hizbul
Mujahideen replaced JKLF; and well-equipped mercenaries from Afghanistan,
Syria, Libya and Algeria found their way into the Kashmir Valley by negotiating
high-mountain passes in the north. The foreign mercenaries were a determined
lot who took on both the paramilitary forces and the Indian Army in pitched
battles to support the indigenous Hizbul. Alongside, the Laskhar-e-Tayabba,
created in 1990 in Afghanistan with headquarters in Mudrike (near Lahore), was
encouraged to commence operations in Kashmir. Two, Pakistan shifted terrorist
training camps from POK to Afghanistan in 1993 as the US under India’s
insistence came close to declaring Pakistan a state sponsoring terrorism.
Three, to
relieve pressure on insurgents in the Valley, the ISI took advantage of the communal
divide in Jammu. With Muslims of Doda having an affinity with those in the
Valley, it proved an excellent place to provide succour and sustenance to
insurgents on the run in the Valley across the Pir Panjal range. Moreover,
towns of Doda, Kishtwar and Bhadarwah are contiguous to the thinly populated mountainous
areas of Himachal Pradesh, which also became a good hiding place. By beginning
1994, the situation in Doda had deteriorated considerably. To operate in Doda,
the army wanted the Disturbed Area Act followed by the Armed Forces Special
Powers Act, which, since 1990 had been applied in the Valley and a 20km belt
along the LC in Poonch and Rajouri districts, to be extended to Doda at the
earliest. This was done.
Four, international
concern over Human Right violations in Kashmir reached a high point in February
1994 when Prime Minister Bhutto raised the issue at the United Nations
Commission for Human Rights in Geneva. India, meanwhile set up a National Human
Rights Commission in October 1993, followed by the army establishing a Human
Rights cell for trials of excesses by soldiers the same year.
And Five, Pakistan
helped create the Hurriyat, an umbrella organisation of 27 militant groups,
mostly pro-Pakistan, with dubious and untested political clout, in May 1993.
The Hurriyat drew strength not from the ‘people of Kashmir’ that it claimed to
represent, but from the pro-Pakistan militants in fear of whom the ordinary
people, especially in the Valley, lived.
The year 1993
could have been a turning point for the Kashmir insurgency. The new COAS,
General B.C. Joshi, who took office on 1 July 1993, was determined to take the
bull by the horns. Unlike his predecessor, he refused to call the Kashmir problem
a ‘law and order’ issue, implying that the governor, retired General K.V.
Krishna Rao (the state was under governor rule) would be disallowed to dictate
to the army in the troubled state. General Joshi advised Prime Minister P.V.
Narasimha Rao in August 1993 to allow the army to hit insurgent bases in POK,
and conduct raids at Pakistani posts close to the LC, especially south of Pir
Panjal. He reasoned that no additional troops were needed for these tasks. And
such pro-active action would help raise the morale of the troops, put Pakistan
on the defensive, and help sever growing ties between the people and the radical
Mujahids operating in Kashmir. General Joshi was of the firm conviction that
the army should not continue in counter-terrorism operations for long, but go
back to its primary task of external defence. In hindsight, the timing was
opportune as insurgency had yet not spread to Jammu division, the Hurriyat was
not formed, and the army had the militants under manageable control.
Prime Minister
Rao was not the man for the moment. He backed Governor Rao to the hilt making
it clear to the defunct state administration and the army that he wanted to
hold parliamentary and state assembly elections in J&K at the earliest;
these were eventually held in 1996 amidst widespread reports that the security
forces including the army had helped rig the Kashmir elections by bogus voting.
Meanwhile,
taking stock of the situation, General Joshi revived the idea of the Rashtriya
Rifles (RR was to comprise retired servicemen) mooted in 1987 by minister of
state for defence Arun Singh and the COAS, General K. Sundarji, to being regular
army with another name, but with a temporary paramilitary status (which remains
till today). As it became clear that the army would have to be in J&K
longer than he had wished, General Joshi decided to raise large numbers of RR
units completely from within the army resources, with the intent to save time
by dispensing with getting the government’s approval for new raisings. Even as
a portion of his army was to become the RR, he was keen to not use the northern
command and even strike corps reserves for counter-terrorism operations in
J&K. A total of 30 battalions and 10 sector headquarters (brigade
headquarters) were ordered to be raised in nine months starting January 1994 by
milking existing army units and using War Wastage Reserves (WWRs).
The raising of
nearly 40,000 RR troops in a record time was a nightmare for the army. At a
time when the army was struggling to maintain equipment because of the sudden
collapse of the Soviet Union, WWRs with the army for vehicles, tentage and
small arms were depleted to precarious levels. To cater for the force’s lack of
cohesiveness as they were gathered from disparate units, General Joshi became
the honorary ‘Colonel of the RR regiment’ to ensure the best troops and
officers came to the RR. As the RR units took three to five years to stabilise,
regular troops including reserve forces, and Special Forces continued to be
employed in CT roles.
Being conscious
that RR would have to operate amongst the people under media glare, General
Joshi issued strict dos and don’ts to troops to check Human Rights violations.
He also decided to raise a psychological operations (psy ops) division under a
major general rank officer drawing from officers of the military intelligence
and operations directorate, and reporting to the vice-chief of army staff, to
beat the insurgents’ propaganda. This was the beginning of the Army Liaison Cell
which over time transformed into the present Directorate of Public Information,
different from what it was intended to be. The ALC was meant to assist the
media with timely and accurate information to counter militant’s propaganda,
and not to project senior army officers as the ADGPI and its affiliate
organisations at lower command levels seems to be doing.
The Second Phase: The sudden death of General
Joshi was a set-back to army’s determination to go back to its primary task on
the LC. It also marked the second phase from 1994 to 1998 under COAS, General Shankar
Roychowdhary, when the army consolidated its hold on CI ops under difficult
conditions: the RR after its rapid expansion was showing unmistakable signs of
distress; the flow of hardened foreign militants into Kashmir increased
progressively; the army’s strategy of ‘winning hearts and minds (WHAM)’ under
operation Sadbhavana was viewed with scepticism by the people; and the United
Headquarters formed in May 1993 by Union minister of state for home, Rajesh
Pilot with retired Lt General M.A. Zaki as its chairman was not working as
various security forces failed to cooperate with one another.
An elaboration
on the RR during this period is necessary. Compared to the motivated militants,
the RR lacked cohesion, motivation, good communications and weaponry. There
were several instances of soldiers running amuck. Cases of soldiers inflicting
self-injuries as a way of being eased out of the Valley were not uncommon. The
commanding officers of most RR units were simply not communicating with their
troops. There was discernable decrease in discipline and patience.
Round-the-clock vigilance, lack of sleep, and an all-pervading fear was taking
its toll on the troops. Added to this was a shortage of young officers. In a
classified study in late 1997 ordered by the northern army commander, Lt
General S. Padmanabhan, the following reasons were found to be responsible for
the existing state of affairs: command break-down, battle fatigue, overall
shortage of young officers, peacetime administration found to be overloaded,
environmental stress, work culture, general disturbance, troops succumbing to
enemy propaganda, officers using any method to get postings cancelled, and
inadequate allowances for troops combating insurgency in the state.
Thus, between 1995 and 1998, as many as six
regular brigades were sucked into CI operations. Little thought was given to
the fact that these were reserves of the Northern Command, a fact which
comforted Pakistan when planning the 1999 Kargil conflict. The Indian Army was
to pay dearly by losing many more lives during Operation ‘Vijay’, the 1999
conflict in the Kargil sector, because these soldiers took time to reorient themselves
from conducting CI ops to fighting a conventional war.
The army,
however, patted itself for having played a yeoman’s role in the conduct of 1996
assembly elections and the installation of the Farooq Abdullah government in
October 1996. This landmark event convinced the army leadership of its role in
the running of the state administration. The army senior brass had tasted
blood. Two years back, Kamal Mustafa, Farooq Abdullah’s younger brother told
FORCE that the army had then approached the chief minister with a queer
proposal. It wanted senior army officers to fill in the posts of deputy
commissioners and commissioners in the state. The suggestion, however, was
immediately shot down by the Union home minister, L.K. Advani. Not deterred by
the refusal, the army, convinced of its indispensability in the state,
continued to seek a larger role for itself through its WHAM strategy.
The Third Phase: But, to carry the story
forward, the 1999 Kargil conflict was the third and a crucial phase in army’s
involvement in CI ops. Plenty of lessons should have been learnt, yet few were sought
let alone learnt by the army leadership. The army was caught off guard by the
conflict and had difficulty in re-orienting itself to conventional operations. With
the sudden shifting of attention of 15 and 16 corps commanders towards
conventional war, the RR was rendered headless. By extension, the United
Headquarters, which was formed to institutionalise cooperation and coordination
between all security forces especially the RR and paramilitary forces (BSF and
CRPF), and had been less than optimally functional since its inception in May
1993, was rendered defunct. This meant grave threat to internal lines of army’s
communications for soldiers fighting on the LC. Thus, to provide command and
control to the RR troops and support to United Headquarters, Army Headquarters
ordered the shifting of RR overall force headquarters (OFH) under its director
general, Lt General Avtar Singh from Delhi to Srinagar in June 1999 at the
height of the conflict.
Unfortunately, the
paramilitary forces (BSF), under the Union home ministry, refused to cooperate
with this new headquarters. And, the chief minister, Farooq Abdullah, who had
not been consulted regarding the replacement of his 15 and 16 corps security
advisors by OFH, went into a sulk. Thus, within three months, the OFH was
forced to beat an ignominious retreat from the Valley back to Delhi, with most
its staff posted to the newly raised 14 corps headquarters near Leh (Ladakh).
What lessons did
the army learn from this? It raised two additional CI force headquarters to
combat militants. The ‘Kilo’ or Kupwara CI force headquarters was raised in
September 1999, and the ‘Romeo’ or Rajouri CI force headquarters came into
being in January 2000. These moves demonstrated army’s resolve to continue with
CI ops with vigour and if needed all by itself. The idea of greater involvement
of paramilitary forces in both CI ops and in security of internal communication
lines during war was glossed over.
The Fourth Phase: Even as the infiltration of
hard-core militants increased after Pakistan’s defeat in the Kargil conflict,
the army was also recovering from the jolt of the unexpected limited war. This
impacted most on the field commanders, who became restive, setting stage for
the fourth phase in year 2000. During this year, in a replay of the early
Nineties, the army at lower levels was raring to go, having been encouraged by the
COAS, General V.P. Malik enunciation of the doctrine of a ‘limited war’, which
was publicly endorsed by the defence minister, George Fernandes.
Thus, in a tacit
understanding, while the senior brass in Kashmir winked, the units adopted a
calibrated offensive action across the LC to engage the Pakistan Army and to
sanitise areas of infiltration. For example, on 22 January 2000, fighting in
the Chhamb sector left 16 Pakistani soldiers dead. While both sides blamed one
another, the truth was that Indian troops, in strength, attacked a Pakistani
post and overran it. Similar instances occurred in Akhnoor, Mendhar, Kotli,
Naushera and Pallanwala between January and August 2000. It was payback time on
the LC.
Formations
commanders on the LC started justifying the need for such action on grounds that
Pakistan must face local military defeats. It was argued in private that body
bags going home in the glare of cameras would compel the Pakistan Army to
re-think its proxy war in Kashmir. Local artillery commanders said that in
addition to punitive raids by infantry and Special Forces on Pakistani posts,
more Bofors regiments should be inducted into J&K. Heavy artillery pounding
of Pakistani positions in areas where infiltration occurred would be a morale
booster for Indian troops.
Given this
situation, the COAS, General Malik, in December 2000, said that chances of a
war with Pakistan were high. His assessment was based on the thinking that
Pakistan may, in anger, retaliate in strength which could result in a
full-scale limited war. The army chief’s public statement was enough for the
Indian leadership to get alarmed. Thus, the unsaid calibrated offensive action
policy was over by April 2001.
To appease the
army, the government cleared the raisings of more RR battalions in January
2001. (Moreover, for the first time, separate financial allocation was made for
the RR in the annual defence budget.) The proposal to raise 30 more RR
battalions, six each year, was accepted. Two additional force headquarters and
eight sector headquarters to control the additional forces were to be raised
accordingly. This marked the end of army’s pro-active strategy.
The next 13
years would see the army justify merits of a defensive mind-set, and the
benefits of CI and anti-infiltration ops done by 62 RR battalions controlled by
five force headquarters. Like the earlier period of 1994-1998, the chasm
between officers and men would grow once again, but for entirely different
reasons. The erstwhile disharmony within the RR is no longer there. Instead,
mutual respect between officers and men, which is the raison d’etre of an army unit the world over, has diminished. More
on this critical aspect will be discussed later.
The Fifth Phase: The fifth or present phase
of army’s internal involvement in J&K, which has been the longest of all, began
with the end of Operation Parakram in October 2002. Five events during this
period have motivated the army to frenetically continue in the CI role. These
are the ceasefire on the LC starting 26 November 2003, Operation Fence (or
Anti-Infiltration Obstacle System, AIOS) since 1 July 2004, two successful
state assembly elections of 2002 and 2008, and the release of the army’s
‘sub-conventional warfare doctrine’ in January 2007 by defence minister, A.K.
Antony. The last two events were without fanfare, but the army extrapolated and
imbibed powerful self-serving messages from both.
The successful 2002
and 2008 assembly elections convinced the army brass of its indispensability to
the political process in the state. In the absence of cogent political initiatives
on Kashmir by New Delhi, these have spurred the army to rough-shod the regular
protestations since January 2009 of the state chief minister, Omar Abdullah for
partial lifting of the AFSPA. And the release of doctrine during the tenure of
COAS, General J.J. Singh signalled that fighting CI ops was officially more
important than preparedness for ‘hot war’.
The LC ceasefire
offer was a masterstroke by Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf. By the silencing
of firepower, especially artillery guns, all artillery units in the J&K
theatre were suddenly short of hands-on training. Until the ceasefire, all
artillery units had a battery (six guns) on call ready to fire salvos at short
notice; the artillery fire was a morale booster for troops living in eyeball-to-eyeball
confrontation on the LC. In the last 10 years, the artillery guns have been
lying in sheds with gunners detailed on CI role.
A sense of
frustration borne out of unending and punishing CI role has gripped the
soldiers. As an aside, all soldiers that these writers spoke with immediately
after Operation Parakram (10-month long military stand-off with Pakistan) had
said that they were happier training for conventional war. General Musharraf
had achieved the strategic purpose of tiring the Indian Army from within by compelling
it to fight an elusive enemy rather than train for combat with the real one. This
is not all. General Musharraf had alongside directed his then director general,
ISI, Lt General Ashfaq Kayani to take terrorism from J&K theatre to
mainland India. India, therefore, was to witness many spectacular terrorism
attacks supported by ISI in various degrees starting 2004, with of course, the
26 November 2008 Mumbai attacks being the boldest of them all.
Operation Fence
was a disservice by the then COAS, General N.C. Vij, who having been the DGMO
during Operation Vijay and the vice-COAS during Operation Parakram should have
delivered better. Utilising the ceasefire to fence the entire LC, and taking
cue from the BSF guarding the 198km International Border in Jammu (called
Working Boundary by Pakistan), the Indian Army erected a fence on the remaining
556 km of the LC. The fence or the AIOS was completed on 1 July 2004. Given the
nature of the LC which arbitrarily cuts across villages and divides streams,
rivers and mountains, the run of the AIOS varies from place to place from being
close to the military-held line to up to three km inside.
The AIOS meant
to check infiltration presents a dilemma: it is simply not cost-effective in
the higher reaches in winter months where 20-25 feet of snow destroys the fence
every year. The annual cost of repairing the AIOS on the LC is more than Rs 150
crore for materials alone. As only a small window of summer months is available
for repairing the AIOS, one army pioneer battalion (900 men) with ponies and
mules to lug materials is employed every year in addition to other support
services to ensure that the work is finished in time. This task obviously is at
the cost of annual stocking effort for forward posts in high-altitude which,
too, have the same summer window for work. For these reasons, in 2011-2012, 15
corps in Srinagar did a successful pilot project of replacing the fence with
permanently buried wooden pointers (called Punjis
in jungle warfare) as the AIOS to deter infiltration. The recommendation was
sent to the northern command (responsible for Jammu and Kashmir), but nothing
much happened as the army commander was due for retirement.
Considering that
the present northern army commander, Lt General Sanjiv Chachra has called the
fence a game-changer, it will be status quo. The argument that the fence is
cost-effective (the cost does not matter) and prevents infiltration will
continue to be made. While attributing benefits to the fence as AIOS, the
Indian Army is unwilling to concede its biggest drawback: It has instilled the
Maginot mentality. Any worthwhile military commander the world over will attest
that a fortification induces a false sense of security and stifles the
offensive spirit and offensive action. With the silence of artillery guns and
fencing on the LC, the Indian Army’s mind-set has decisively transformed from
an offensive to a defensive one, focussed on fighting terrorism in Jammu and
Kashmir by counter-insurgency operations without an end-state.
Unfortunately,
instead of waking-up to the realities, the Indian Army continues to make the
case for prolonged involvement in CI ops in Jammu and Kashmir. When General
Kayani took office in November 2007 and ceasefire violations had commenced, the
Indian Army had said that after the crucial state assembly election of 2008, it
would review its involvement in CI ops. This did not happen. Today, the Indian
Army is yet again busy making the case of its involvement in CI ops in Jammu
and Kashmir. Its argument is that post-2014, when the US and Nato troops leave
Afghanistan, the terrorists engaged with the US and Nato forces, will be freed.
They will then be shifted by the ISI to Kashmir.
To come to the
present, 2013 witnessed maximum ceasefire violations on the LC. Five soldiers
of 21 Bihar battalion were shot dead in Poonch in August 2013 close to where a
soldier of 13 Raj Rif battalion was beheaded by Pakistan’s Border Action Team
(BAT) in January, and for the first time since the ceasefire of 26 November
2003, the tranquil International border in Jammu saw increased exchange of fire
between August and October. Visiting Rajouri (25 division) in August of the
same year, the COAS General Bikram Singh vowed to repay the Pakistan Army at a
‘time and place of own choosing.’
However, the
single important reason why Pakistanis are not deterred by the Indian Army is its
very apparent inward-oriented mind-set. All forces, including the BSF, are focussed
on anti-infiltration operations, while the POK battalions are free to do
training for ‘hot war’.
The Hot War
Four things that should go hand in hand towards
creating a credible conventional deterrence are: political will, orientation or
mind-set, modernisation, and realistic training. All these have been less than
encouraging for the Indian Army. While the army has travelled a long way since
the 1971 war, it has, unfortunately, been in the reverse gear.
Since the 1971
war, India has demonstrated political will on just three occasions, with a
success rate of 1:2. India purportedly succeeded once against China, while Pakistan
called off India’s bluff at coercive diplomacy twice.
The so-called
success against China was during the 1986-87 Sumdorong Chu crisis. One day in
June 1986, when a small Indian detachment was away, the PLA occupied its post
in Sumdorong Chu, south of the Thagla-Bumla line in Kameng district of
Arunuchal Pradesh. In a show of military strength to get back the captured
post, COAS, General K. Sundarji ordered a crash forward deployment under
Operation Falcon.
At the peak of
the operation in 1987, three mountain divisions of 4 corps were pushed to the
McMahon Line; two divisions were deployed in Kameng district to defend Tawang,
and the better part of the third division was placed in Lohit district to
defend Walong. Tawang was designated as the corps vital area, which had to be
defended at all costs. Extremely strong artillery elements were placed in
support of the troops. General Sundarji ordered airlifting of artillery
ammunition worth crores to be stocked in forward areas.
In a rather rash
move, reminiscent of the pre-1962 forward policy, 77 brigade, to be maintained
by air, was moved close to Sumdorong Chu, which was just three km short of the
Thagla ridge occupied by PLA forces. On the question of Chinese tactical
nuclear weapons raised by the then eastern army commander, Lt General V.N.
Sharma, minister Arun Singh and General Sundarji told the media in Delhi that
‘Indian forces will not fight with their hands tied’, whatever that meant. Somehow,
the Chinese decided that going to war was not worth their while and thus by the
spring of 1987, the crisis was diffused. In hindsight, the Chinese stepped back
to fight another day. A case in point is their successful coercive diplomacy in
April-May 2013 in Depsang region of Ladakh.
Unlike China,
Pakistan has never waited to call off India’s bluff. The first instance was
General Sundarji’s brainchild, exercise Brass-Tacks conducted in the winter of
1986-87, when a total of 13 Indian divisions participated. The concept was to
practice a major thrust to achieve deep penetration in the desert and reach the
Indus river line. The problem came when instead of contesting India’s suggested
thrust in the desert, Pakistan Army vice-COAS, General Arif, in a brilliant stroke
moved his army reserve south towards the north, posing a threat to Amritsar,
Gurdaspur and Pathankot. At this point, India’s strike reserves were far away
from the threatened area. India was suddenly vulnerable at its very centre of
gravity around north Rajasthan-Punjab. Through some deft diplomacy by Pakistani
ruler, General Zia-ul-Haq, the matter was resolved, with Pakistan calling off
India’s bluff at military coercion. In hindsight, it was clear that exercise
Brass-Tasks was not a launching pad for war. It was a purely military exercise
in which politics got mixed with military matters.
The second
failed military coercion manifested during Operation Parakram, the 10-month
long military confrontation from 18 December 2001 to 16 October 2002. After the
terrorists attack on the Parliament on 13 December 2001, India ordered
mobilisation of its military on December 18. In the first full-fledged
mobilisation since the 1971 war, the army was ready to cross the border by
first week of January 2002 under Operation Parakram. To assert resolve, India
test-fired its new single-stage 700km range Agni-I
missile on January 25. Pakistan, taken by surprise and with its reserve troops
committed in Afghanistan against the US-led war on terror, reached out to the
US for intervention. The US satellites, meanwhile, picked up offensive
reconnaissance manoeuvres by India’s 2 corps which led to the replacement of
the corps commander, Lt General Kapil Vij. This Indian action was the clear
indication that its political and military leadership were out of sync. The
then Vajpayee-led government did not inform the COAS, General S. Padmanabhan
that the mobilisation was not for war but coercive diplomacy.
As the military
stand-off continued, ISI-supported terrorists struck once again on 18 May 2002
at a military camp in Kashmir leading the COAS to publicly say that India
should not exercise patience against Pakistan. Prime Minister Vajpayee visited
Srinagar and declared that war was inevitable. This time around, the Pakistan
Army was prepared, and to demonstrate tit-for-tat, it conducted three
back-to-back Ghaznavi and Abdali ballistic missile flight tests. The
test-firing of ballistic missiles emerged as the sign of resolve and signalling
deterrence to adversaries and international audiences. Having got the message,
India’s national security advisor, Brajesh Mishra approached his US counterpart,
Condoleezza Rice to help resolve the crisis. India had blinked with little in
return.
Barring the
above instances, Indian political leadership has always exercised the so-called
restraint to Pakistan’s provocations. As General Roychowdhury succinctly said
in his book, ‘Officially at Peace’: ‘Our apparent tolerance towards blatant
terrorist attacks (by Pakistan) was actually due to the run-down in our
military capabilities for decisive punitive action, caused by the government’s
economic preoccupation with the demands and compulsions of a free market
economy. Effective counter-offensive capabilities were the precise area where
the Indian Army’s potential had been greatly eroded.’ The former COAS was
referring to the five-year term of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao which started
in June 1991.
What were India’s
compulsions for not retaliating to Pakistani blatant support of terrorism in
J&K beginning 1990? The issue becomes curious as before 1990, India did not
have experience of a NWNP environment. Both in 1947-48 and 1965 wars on
Kashmir, Pakistan’s strategy were to have irregulars precede regular forces,
which then led to a full-fledged conventional war. 1990 was different because
the Pakistan Army adopted the strategy of attack-by-infiltration, and for
India, three reasons prevented it from escalation. These were poor political
leadership, empty coffers, and Indian Army’s turbulent past.
While the first
two reasons are known, the third needs elaboration. The Eighties under General
Sundarji saw the biggest show of military muscle by India: the Sumdorong Chu
crisis in 1986-87, exercise Brass-Tacks in 1987, and Indian Peace Keeping Force
operations in Sri Lanka beginning 1987. Mention has not been made of the army’s
involvement in combating Punjab terrorism (Operation Woodrose) which followed
Operation Bluestar (army operation in the Golden Temple in 1984) for two
reasons: the army formations involved in counter-terrorism had not moved out of
their operational areas (they were forces-in-being available for war), and
unlike J&K, Punjab did not have an insurgency. In case of a war with
Pakistan, the local people, who were terrorised by militants, were assessed to
not sabotage army’s internal lines of communications.
General
Sundarji’s successor, General V.N. Sharma had an unenviable tenure. The IPKF returned
home in 1990 without much glory and with fatigued troops who were immediately
inducted into J&K. Exercise Brass-Tacks, on the other hand, had battered
the army equipment so hard that it took most units which participated in the
mammoth misadventure more than a year to be restored to a war-worthy state. All
these factors denied the army leadership the opportunity to formulate an
aggressive operational policy in the early Nineties when the clamour for
retaliation was greatest from the field formations.
A word on the
1999 Kargil conflict is in place. India’s political leadership simply did not
have a choice to overlook or downplay Pakistani occupation in the Kargil
sector. While there was no escaping from the hard fight-back, it was India’s
good luck that General Musharraf had not planned the logical end to the
aggression that he unfolded. Notwithstanding the political mileage that the
Vajpayee drew from Operation Vijay, the truth is that it was a pyrrhic victory.
Regarding Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh, twice during the 10-year tenure starting May 2004,
India showed a total lack of political spine to grave provocations. The first
instance was the 26 November 2008 (26/11) terrorists’ attacks in Mumbai. 166
innocents were killed and over 300 were injured during three days of continuous
mayhem unleashed by 10 terrorists which were supported, funded, trained and guided
by Pakistan’s ISI. It was only on the third day that the three defence service
chiefs met with the Prime Minister to give him their assessment of military
retaliation. After that, nothing was heard from the Prime Minister.
When senior
Union minister Pranab Mukherjee was asked by the media if all options against
Pakistan were on the table, he replied in the affirmative. Pakistan COAS,
General Kayani responded by saying that Pakistan was ready for war being
contemplated by India, and New Delhi decided that a stoic silence was the best
option.
The other instance
was the sudden intrusion by Chinese security forces in April 2013, when they
stayed-put 19km inside Indian land in Ladakh for three weeks claiming it as their
own. According to media reports, the Prime Minister sought the advice of his
COAS, General Bikram Singh only after a week of Chinese occupation. Therefore,
in successful coercive diplomacy, Chinese blatant aggression ensured that Indian
troops stopped patrolling in the contested area after the Chinese forces
vacated it of their own accord. This is not all. New Delhi has regularly
downplayed repeated and regular intrusion by Chinese forces all along the LAC,
leaving the hapless army and paramilitary forces guarding the disputed border
helpless.
Defensive Orientation: India’s
political pusillanimity has rubbed hard on the military leadership and is
partly responsible for its defensive orientation. For example, during the earlier
years of insurgency in J&K, the thinking at the highest military levels was
that a sudden war by an incensed India could not be ruled out. Hence, Indian
military, unlike the 1971 war, would not get a preparatory time, and will be
forced to fight with whatever they have. This viewpoint has changed with time.
At present, the
army leadership is unhesitant in ruling out an all-out war with Pakistan;
Pakistan had little need to go to war, when its low-cost strategy of bleeding
India is reaping dividends. And, India, which is focussed on its economic
growth and inclusive well-being of its people, seems reconciled to daily
martyrdom of its soldiers fighting terrorism.
As a consequence
of the defensive mind-set, at the operational level, the initiative has passed
completely into the hands of the insurgents and their Pakistani patrons. The
latter dictate the rates of engagement, infiltration, areas to be activated and
to what purpose, including methods of initiation.
The existing
defensive orientation of troops is the anti-thesis for the next war with
Pakistan, which, given the nuclear weapons capability with both sides, has been
assessed to be short, swift and intense. This explains the inclusion and
emphasis upon the ‘directive style of command’ (allowing field commanders
flexibility to re-orient plans to retain initiative) in the Indian Army
doctrine which underscores the ‘pro-active’ war fighting strategy. The army
must realise that its ‘pro-active’ war strategy which involves organisational
re-structuring, offensive operational art, and tactics are predicated on the
premise of fighting the war in enemy territory.
Because of the army’s
complete commitment to CI ops, senior field commanders in J&K have been
disoriented from fighting conventional war. The focus is on anti-infiltration,
which implies surveillance of ravines, nullahs, and lower ground in mountains
rather than heights meant for occupation. For this reason, before the launch of
Operation Vijay (1999 Kargil conflict), GOC 15 corps, Lt General Krishan Pal
had mistaken the occupation of Indian territories as an infiltration attempt by
terrorists. On his advice, the then defence minister, George Fernandes had
assured the nation that the operation by the army would be over in 48 hours. Similarly,
retired COAS, General V.K. Singh informed us in his recently published autobiography
that during Operation Parakram (2001-2002), the northern army commander, Lt
General R.K. Nanavaty had told the COAS General Padmanabhan that his troops
were not ready for war as they needed time to re-orient from CI ops to a ‘Hot
War.’
Modernisation: Precisely because of the defensive proclivity of
senior army brass bordering on the verge of passivity, modernisation of the
army has suffered enormously. During Operation Vijay, when the Indian Army was
compelled to fight a limited conventional war, the COAS, General V.P. Malik,
when questioned by the media, had expressed helplessness by saying that, “We
will fight with whatever we have.”
It was the same
story during Operation Parakram, when the COAS General Padmanabhan was informed
by the northern army commander that his WWRs were inadequate for war. So, here
was the bulk of the Indian Army in 2001-2002 deployed on a military-line in
turbulent J&K over which Pakistan had fought three wars, without desired
resources and ammunition and completely disoriented. Yet, its senior army
officers have got fame and decorations in this war theatre after the 1990
insurgency. Can it get more bizarre than this?
On
modernisation, General V.K. Singh wrote a letter to the Prime Minister a month
before his retirement in May 2012 that got leaked. He had said that the Indian
Army was not prepared to fight a war. Ironically, there was a furore over the
disclosure not on why the army was unprepared despite being in a NWNP condition
since 1990, but on how the secret letter found its way to the media. Given the
frivolousness of the media, it was little wonder that when a month later the
next COAS, General Bikram Singh informed the nation through the media that the
army was prepared to meet any challenge, no hackles were raised.
In reality, the
situation regarding ammunition and equipment for a conventional war remains
precariously low. The Indian Army may not have ammunition to fight the next war
(with Pakistan, not to mention China) beyond three to five days. Holdings for
all types of missiles, and anti-tank ammunition are critically low. Stockings
for artillery (70 per cent fuses needed for firing are unavailable) and armour
fighting vehicles ammunition are unlikely to last beyond four to five days of
intense war. WWRs for most ammunition categories do not exist. (It is mandatory
for the army to have ammunition WWR for 40 days of intense war for long-shelf
life category, and 21 days intense fighting for short-shelf life category like
anti-tank, rocket artillery, and missiles. In addition, the army holds critical
ammunition for two days of war as unit reserves, first and second line
holdings). All this is when the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) responsible for
ammunition has an annual turnover of USD2.5 billion and it regularly passes off
its profits to the defence ministry as dividends.
This is not all.
Mission reliability of mechanised vehicles is poor. The artillery is obsolete
and inadequate; air defence is antiquated; armour is unreliable due to regular
barrel accidents caused by mismatch between indigenous barrels and ammunition; and
night fighting devices are insufficient. Take the case of small arms which are
the mainstay of the Indian infantry. The OFB claimed in early 2012 to have made
an ‘impressive product range for small arms including 5.56mm INSAS LMG and
assault rifle’.
Interestingly,
defence minister A.K. Antony said in beginning 2013 that, “The INSAS rifle is planned to be replaced by the new
assault rifle… The ministry is in
the process of procuring assault rifles through the global route with transfer
of technology to OFB.” The Request for Proposal (RFP) was issued in November 2011.
Technical evaluation of bids has been completely and there is total silence on
further progress. The Infantry wants a standard multi-calibre
and multi-usage rifle. This is because a soldier holding an INSAS rifle made by
OFB Ishapore, known to have stoppages during firing, is not confident facing an
AK-47 rifle-holding terrorist. Take the case of Carl Gustaf recoilless rifle,
which has been with the army since Eighties. Its ToT was transferred to OFB,
yet even today, the weapon and its ammunition are imported from the Swedish
OEM.
It is well-known
that the Indian Army was unprepared for war during the 1999 Kargil conflict.
There were umpteen reports in the media of defence ministry bureaucrats
air-dashing to Russia and Israel post-haste clutching suitcases filled with
dollars to procure ammunition. Artillery guns from other theatres were pulled
out and despatched to Kargil to fight the limited conflict, in which the
Pakistan Army did not join combat openly. What if the conflict had snowballed
into an all-out war?
No lessons were
learnt from the Kargil conflict and the army found itself in the same situation
during Operation Parakram. Part of the reason why maintenance of WWR has never
been a serious exercise is because the focus has invariably been on spending
finances on new procurements. As a consequence of this attitude, the WWRs which
had been depleted by the fast raisings of RR units in 1994 during General
Joshi’s tenure were never made up. The other reason is the self-serving
attitude of the army leadership. The staff officers at all command levels who
should be devoted to providing wherewithal to their field formations are
instead busy serving their bosses; one visible manifestation of this rot in the
prevalent five-star culture in the present day army.
Training: The present-day training is not realistic for
preparing the army for war. Let’s look at three different theatres: the plains
sector where 2 strike corps is planned to operate, the desert sector where
India hopes to make territorial gains, and the northern command in J&K. Starting
2005, after the COAS General Vij had announced the new Cold Start doctrine in
2004 following lessons learnt from both Operations Vijay and Parakram, the army
did a series of exercises. FORCE was invited to witness exercise Sanghe Shakti
of 2 strike corps, which is the heaviest corps of the army in terms of mobile
assets. In this exercise far too many capabilities were assumed making the
whole show more aspirational than real.
For instance,
network centricity, excellent battlefield transparency, desired availability of
equipment and ammunition, good communications, smooth joint and combined
operations, and directive style of command are issues that require serious
consideration. Most of them do not exist or are a work in progress at snail’s
pace.
It is the same
story with 21 strike corps of the southern army command which is supposed to
make major gains in the deserts. For one, notional capabilities lead to the
impression that the exercises are meant more to test commanders than to train
troops. Moreover, given the fact that Pakistan now has a green belt secured by
its regular army rather than the earlier rangers, it will not be a cake-walk
for the Indian Army as is being war-gamed.
Officers who participated
in exercise Brass-Tacks in 1986, attest that the full authorised equipment and
vehicles was made available in the expansive exercise theatre to make training
realistic. Today, this is not considered cost-effective, and most exercises are
conducted in skeleton order (small numbers) and in restricted areas. These do
not provide the feel of battlefield to troops. Moreover, the periodicity of
exercises has been curtailed to save money; skeleton corps exercises are held
biannually rather than every year. There are restrictions on firing as well.
Few officers have seen the full complement of artillery regiment guns firing
salvos together.
Regarding the
northern command, as mentioned earlier, the focus is on anti-infiltration
operations. The contention of senior Indian officers that additional RR troops
are add-on to troops on the LC in case of a ‘hot war’ is suspect as both forces
do negligible desired training on regular basis.
The Way Forward
There is the need to assess the military threats to
Indian’s territorial integrity, which undeniably come from the disputed borders
with China and Pakistan, both non status-quo nations with a strategic
partnership against India.
Of the two
adversaries, the bigger threat is from China for four reasons: One, the
disputed border with China, referred to as LAC by the 1993 treaty of peace and
tranquillity, is neither agreed on maps nor on ground, hence is subject to
change by the side with greater political resolve and military power.
Two, China will
not resolve the disputed border except on its own terms however unfair. The
disputed border helps China keep India’s Asian ambitions in check, and assists
Pakistan in maintaining a strategic parity with arch-rival India.
Three, a
catch-up with China by India, especially in the strategic and military domain
is not possible in the foreseeable future.
And four, in
case of a border war with China, no country will come to India’s assistance.
India should prepare to face the Chinese challenge — strategic and military —
all by itself. The economic and security challenges (freedom of the sea lanes)
are a different ballgame where India will find friendly powers aligning with
its assessments.
What is the crux
of the border dispute? Since December 2010, China makes a distinction between
the (disputed) border and the LAC, but India doesn’t. According to China, it
has a 3,488km LAC with India, which is the same as India’s position. But,
China’s border with India is a mere 2,000km, while India considers the entire
LAC as its border, earlier (before the 1993 bilateral treaty) officially referred
to as the McMahon Line. This is not all. Since 2009, China has claimed the
entire 92,000 sqkm of India’s state of Arunachal Pradesh as its land, called
South Tibet. To recall, India, during the visit of Prime Minister Vajpayee to
China in 2003 had for the first-time accepted Tibet as a part of China in
writing.
By a mere
announcement in December 2010 made on the eve of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s
visit to India, China, without firing a shot, cut the disputed border by
1,488km, which it has with India in Ladakh (Jammu and Kashmir). Instead of
challenging the Chinese temerity of claiming so much of Indian land, New Delhi
underplayed the Chinese interpretation of the border dispute. This opened the
path for the PLA to shift the LAC in Ladakh (in Depsang valley in April-May
2013) by its security forces while maintaining that it had not intruded into
Indian land. Once the PLA left Depsang after three-weeks of occupation, New
Delhi instructed its security forces to not patrol the new disputed area.
Why would China
start a border war with India when it has succeeded in military coercion? Perhaps,
the only militarily vulnerable area for India is Ladakh where China says it
does not have a border with India and Pakistan has a LC and no-man’s land (Actual
Ground Position Line) abutting Siachen glacier. So, a strong possibility of a localised
two-front war exists for India in North Ladakh with the Siachen glacier as the
pivot. But, it is unlikely to be a traditional two-front war with both Pakistan
and China shooting together at India forces.
China, which views
itself as a global player would abstain from a ‘Hot War’ with India by itself,
and also not fight openly alongside Pakistan with India. The most plausible
scenario in North Kashmir (Siachen) would be Pakistan fighting a war with India
with Chinese providing it real-time operational logistics across the Karakoram
highway and strategic support by maintaining military pressure on the entire
LAC (including Ladakh) by aggressive patrolling. This will ensure that the
Indian Army will find it difficult to shift its dual-use formations from east
to west against Pakistan. The purpose of their war would be to force Indian
troops out of the Siachen glacier, threaten Leh and eventually sever Ladakh
from Jammu and Kashmir.
This is not all.
China, which has capability to fight in five domains of land, air, sea, space
and cyber, would unleash its non-contact assets on India. For example, China,
which demonstrated successful anti-satellite capability in 2007 could hit and
destroy India’s communication and navigation satellites for its armed forces in
the low-earth orbit. China, which has recently signed for sharing its
indigenous Beidou navigation system (presently with 16 satellites to be expanded
into 36) with Pakistan, would support its armed forces by providing it military-size
resolution for navigation of its ballistic and cruise missile. Similarly,
China, having developed formidable cyber-attack capabilities, which it has been
using against India since 2009, would employ them during hostilities to create
panic within India. Moreover, China has a plethora of unmatched ballistic and
cruise missiles for land, sea and air.
But, this is not
how the Army Headquarters assess the threat from China. Thinking in a linear
fashion, as the army can do little about the four other domains of war, the
army is, unfortunately, preparing itself to fight the last border war of 1962
better. The COAS, General Deepak Kapoor, who should be credited with initiating
the case for major army accretions and by pushing them with the government by publicly
talking about the possibility of a two-front war in beginning 2009, told FORCE
that chances of a war with China over the border dispute exist. So, the army’s
strategy against China will be ‘strategic defence with limited counter-attack’.
This strategy
formulated sometimes in 2002 was given an accretion-push and priority by
General Kapoor immediately on taking over as the COAS in September 2007. During
a briefing to FORCE in 2004 at 33 corps headquarters (Sukhna), it was said that
the army envisaged three levels of threat from the PLA: low level, medium level
and high level. The threat levels were worked out based on PLA’s air and road lift
capabilities, its’ forces-in-being in TAR, and the terrain which puts restrains
on fielding of combat potential. The army had assessed that the low-level
threat would be a total of 10 to 12 PLA divisions across the entire LAC, and
the high level threat could be between 32 to 34 divisions. This assessment was
revised after Chinese succeeded in building the rail link between the mainland
and TAR. It was now felt that as the PLA had built capability to transport all
32 to 34 divisions at once, the Indian Army should be prepared for the worst
case scenario of 34 divisions facing it across the LAC.
General Kapoor’s
initiation the force accretion case with the government was to be achieved in
two phases. Phase one was raisings of two new mountain division (first army
accretion after 1983) meant to reinforce the existing nine-and-half division
against China for a better defence posture. These divisions completed their
raisings on 31 March 2007, the day General Kapoor retired from service. In
phase two, a mountain corps (17 mountain corps) having two divisions with
support and logistics elements as well as three independent brigades have been
cleared by government and the raisings commenced on 1 January 2013 (COAS,
General Bikram Singh interview). These second phase accretions are meant for
limited counter attack in a border war.
On Pakistan, the
army headquarters’ war strategy remains largely unchanged since the 1971 war.
It is still ‘strategic defence and operational level offence(s).’ Pakistan is
viewed as the bigger of the two threats, which is why eighty per cent of the
army’s assets, including the three strike corps, remain poised against
Pakistan. The war aims also remains unchanged, namely: capture of territory,
attrition of Pakistan war assets, and prisoner of war.
A nuanced change
in strategy has been effected to meet the challenge of the envisaged short,
swift and intense war. It is felt that maximum war aims will have to be realised
within a week to 10 days of war after which intense international pressure
would end the war. This reason is the main driver for re-structuring within the
army, where learning operational and tactical lessons from Operation Parakram,
the war strategy was modified to cater for three operational requirements: a
shortening of mobilisation time (for strike formations), a swift crossing over
of the border without preparatory time, and to effect shallow penetrations all
along the border while retaining surprise about the main ingress to operational
depth by strike corps.
It was realised
that after a strike corps broke-out, the holding formations with enormous
locked-in combat potential would remain unutilised for the remainder of the
war. So, the holding corps having been re-named as pivot corps will now have
combat capabilities to both prepare a bridge-head for the strike formations as
well as make shallow penetrations six to 12km inside enemy territory all along
the border depending on the war theatre.
Moreover, the
mobilisation time for formations especially with permanent locations in central
India has been shortened. The three strike corps while being allocated to three
pivots corps have the option to break-up into up to eight self-sufficient
mobile battle groups centred around an armoured brigade. Some of the strike
corps formations which would constitute battle groups, if and when necessary,
have been stationed in forward locations.
To facilitate
the fast moving war, two new formation headquarters for improved command and
control, namely 9 corps and south-western command have been created. From the
above narrative it become evident that the new doctrine requires two basic
things: directive style of command to succeed, something that the Indian Army
has not displayed during previous 1965 and 1971 wars, and given the existing
officers’ mind-set may not be able to do so in the next war. And, there is the
need for realistic training for troops, which is becoming a rarity.
To put war
matters in perspective regarding Pakistan, three myths need to be demolished.
First, there is a belief that India has a conventional superiority over
Pakistan. This is not true, because this perception is based on bean-counting
of assets of both sides. The Pakistan Army scores over the Indian Army in
strategic command, control, coordination and higher directions of war. However
much the Indian Army may shorten its mobilisation time, it is impossible to
beat Pakistan Army’s advantage of operating on internal lines. Thus, at the
operational level of war, the two armies are nearly matched.
The operational
level can be successful because of higher direction of war, surprise,
firepower, coordination, orientation or mind-set, and training despite fewer
numbers in terms of manpower and equipment. This is not all. Pakistan today is
the only professional army in the world which has developed expertise to fight
war simultaneously at two levels: regular and irregular. India does not have an
institutionalised mechanism to combat this challenge. Moreover, as the land war will be a joint
air-land effort, the Pakistan Army will use its plethora of ballistic missiles
accurately with conventional warheads to supplement its air force numbers, a
war fighting strategy it has learnt from the PLA doctrine.
The second myth
is that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and especially its unstated nuclear weapons
policy has prevented war. If this was true, the Pakistan Army would not make
all out efforts to maintain an operational level parity with the Indian
military. In reality, two factors that prevent India from retaliating to
Pakistan Army’s regular provocations are: a weak and uncaring political
leadership which has scant respect for territorial integrity and formulates
foreign policy without inputs from the military. The second reason is that
given the overall matched capabilities of the two sides, there are no
worthwhile military aims to be achieved in a short and swift war.
The third myth
is that Pakistan’s recent acquisition of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) will
unravel the strategic command and control of nuclear weapons and bring
instability to the battlefield. Readers are advised to read the recent book, ‘Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani
Bomb’, by the insider retired Brigadier Feroz Hassan Khan of the strategic
plans divisions responsible for Pakistan’s nukes.
He writes that:
‘Pakistan has no plans to move towards battlefield weapons (TNWs). The
introduction of Nasr (60km range ballistic missile) is a purely defensive
measure. Should a nuclear warhead system be used in a tactical role, it will
still have strategic impact. This warrants the highest level of command and
control and use of authorisation from the National Command Authority.’
Given the above
discussion, the Indian Army, especially its perspective planning directorate is
strongly advised to review overall threats, and more importantly to focus on
consolidation rather than expansion. Some issues to be debated are:
·
Which is the bigger threat, China or Pakistan?
·
Has the war pivot shifted decisively towards the
mountains, if so, what needs to be done?
·
What doctrine is required against China and what is
feasible against Pakistan?
·
Is there a need to continue with 80,000 strong RR,
or can this force be used elsewhere?
·
Does the Indian Army need to raise the 17 mountain
corps or should it consolidate its existing assets against revisited doctrines for
the two adversaries?
·
Have nuclear weapons been dovetailed into
operational war plans?
·
What is the probability of Pakistan using its
low-yield TNWs with strategic control vested at the highest army level?
·
What if the PLA uses TNWs in a border war against a
determined Indian Army to end the war quickly with minimal collateral damages?
·
Should the army give up its expansive CI ops role
to focus on its primary task?
The last issue will be the hardest to resolve.
For example, recently retired GOC, 15 corps, Lt General Syed Ata Hasnain wrote
in a newspaper article that: ‘In 2011, we (the army) enunciated our own joint
politico-military aim for our commanders — integrate Jammu and Kashmir with
mainstream India, politically, economically, socially and psychologically.’ The
general was perhaps speaking for numerous others of his kind, who have
unwittingly brought the army to this dangerous crossroad where it lacks
conventional deterrence.
